Fall update 2017
oringHappy autumn to everybody! Although it seems more like winter at the moment. Halloween is coming up and I hope you're half as excited about it as my kids are.
Last time I asked a question: When you think of the real estate market what's the first thing that pops into your head? It's crazy? Nuts? Crazynuts? You'd be out of your mind to try and find something here?
In reality the Northern Colorado market is the slowest it's been in years right now. In Fort Collins, spring and early summer were predictably lively, with year over year increases in volume of about 5% in February and March, and fairly static April and May activity vs 2016. However, June and July saw increases in listings of 36% and 34% respectively over 2016.
Those are HUGE numbers. So you were right when you thought you saw a lot more houses for sale this summer. And here's the kicker: the number of sales are down overall.
Attached dwellings (read: condos and townhomes) numbers are different, but no less interesting. In June there were 94% more ATDs listed than the previous year, with an increase in sales of 34%. One could infer from this that the lower priced housing continues to move, which is totally the case. Or as some of my younger, hipper clients say.
So why then are we awash in housing inventory at the moment? I've had this conversation with buyers and sellers alike over the last few months and here are some thoughts. First, new builds, reactive by nature, are finally satisfying demand in the average price ranges (and USDA loan-niche areas like Wellington) which means new construction in the coming years will be a dicey proposition, IMO. Secondly, and I believe more importantly, people have been hearing "the market is stupid wack" for so long that it has actually made buyers around here more cautious, lest they become wack themselves.
"We're just going to rent until the market cools down." If you've told yourself this recently then let's 1. Hope you're reading this; 2. Call me.
To sum up, average priced homes in Northern Colorado will continue to move but at the speeds we were used to five years ago when the market was balanced. This also means the days of double digit year-over-year price increases are probably gone in Northern Colorado. Expect 4-5% across the front range, with areas like Longmont still much warmer than Fort Collins. Additionally, this also means that houses outside of the average price ranges will sit for 3-4 months.
So if you're looking for a rental property now is a great time to be out there since the inventory is high and price reductions are becoming far more common. I'm excited to see what 2018 holds since the data, and the vibe, suggests a balanced market is on the way.
If you have specific comments, questions or real estate needs, as always feel free to contact me. Cheers, Crip
originally published 10/9/2017
Leave a Reply.
Crip Erickson, Owner/Managing Broker